Please see below text of speech delivered today in Cape Town to Thabo Mbeki, Deputy President of South Africa, Jay Naidoo, Minister for telecommunications, other assembled ministers, and over 150 industry CEOs and leaders Karl W. Feilder, President & CEO, Greenwich Mean Time http://www.gmt-2000.com http://www.check-2000.com Lunchtime speech on Y2K Awareness Day. 500 days to go. Mr. Deputy President, Ministers, Ladies and Gentlemen, Thank you for inviting me once again to your magnificent country to explain, from an overseas perspective, the nature of the battle before us. When I started my company, Greenwich Mean Time, in 1995, my colleagues and friends said that I was crazy. You see my focus is PCs - personal computers - those cheap and cheerful lumps of computing power that have become endemic in our organisations and homes. The united opinion back then was that the year 2000 problem affects old computers, old programs, and thus large companies. Perhaps you even believe that today. Well it is wrong - very wrong. Today marks a watershed event for the future of South Africa. Today I can finally tell those of you who have a moral responsibility to lead this great country, that the year 2000 problem inside that innocent looking PC on your desk is worse than the mainframe issue. And today, I can tell you, that most South African companies and government organisations do not understand this. Today, with 500 days until the end of this century, we are faced with a battle on many fronts. Due to the excellent work of the NY2KDSC, and the foresight of some of your ministers, South Africa is relatively well aware of the problem. We have also formed a triumvirate with the UK and Australian governments to share knowledge and experiences. I have enjoyed the unique perspective of advising these governments, and acting as a sounding board for new ideas. I have attended many similar meetings to this, and have delivered the news to those who can actually act upon it. On the world stage, South Africa can hold her head high, that we have addressed the awareness issue head on. The first skirmish in this war has been won. Indeed South Africa now leads Germany, France, and most of Asia in knowing about the problem. I would even go so far as to say that due to a number of factors, including the lack of any centralised government backed awareness campaign, the level of Y2K awareness and understanding in the United States, lags behind South Africa. But in the words of another famous Englishman, Sir Winston Churchill, " This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." The lines are now drawn for the next battle. There are those who will tell you that they have already fought and won. But very few companies, especially the Small and Medium sized enterprises actually understand the Y2K bug. Aware - yes. Understand - No. These organisations believe it is an issue which affects only mainframe computers……and thus……as they have no mainframe, they believe that they are immune. In January this year, the Gartner Group released details of a survey of 1000 British businesses, which showed that 64% run some or all of their MISSION CRITICAL systems on PCs. This compared with a measly 8% on mainframes. I do not believe that this would be unrepresentative of South Africa too. Even large organisations have yet to take the PC problem seriously. Last week I visited one of the largest global accounting firms. They think that they have 140,000 PCs and guess what - they have not yet started checking them. To be sure, your IT department will tell you that they have a grip on it. They will tell you that they have done this sort of thing before. But they DO NOT and they HAVE NOT. They are not attempting to mislead you, they just don't think you, as VIPs can handle the truth. We have therefore created a situation of Chinese whispers inside our organisations. The troops on the battle field know the truth. But their commanders always add a little bit of optimism. And their majors add their spin. Until we create today's situations - which I have seen with my own eyes - where the computer experts are admitting that they will not even be able to fix the mission critical systems in time, and their CEO is on TV saying everything will be fine. I have three key messages to deliver today. Firstly, please believe me when I tell you that every single PC must be checked. Not a range of PCs, not just old PCs, not just no-name brands - every single unique PC. But what should you check for ? There are 5 layers to the PC problem, and your technical staff will understand these clearly once we have explained them. They are - hardware, operating system, software, data, and the way data is shared. The Y2K bug affects both old AND NEW PCs, software and data, and yet most organisations do not even know for sure how many PCs they have - let alone what their staff actually do with them. By now, you must see that we are not going to fix everything, but the good news is that everything does not need to be fixed, However - it does need to be checked. We estimate that there are 400 million PCs in use in the world today. Globally, the computer industry has to date checked perhaps 4 million - about 1% . There are 3.2 million PCs today in South Africa and the statistics for checking for the 2000 problem are similar. We need to check about 6000 PCs every day to even have a fighting chance. My second key point is for you to realise that Y2K compliance is a dream. It is unachievable, and THAT PROBABLY DOES NOT MATTER. What does matter is that we achieve an acceptable level of risk. And that means that YOU need sufficient information and understanding to make an informed RISK DECISION. And hence the second message - Y2K is not about compliance - it's about risk management. Ladies and Gentlemen, you have been chosen to lead your people and your organisations at a critical time for your country. NOW is the time for you to show yourselves not as machiavellian politicians and money motivated economic Darwinists - but as leaders. You have a moral obligation to lead your country through this battle. There will be victors, and there will be casualties. But, I promise you that history will not judge kindly those who shirk this task. This IS the most critical challenge facing your magnificent rainbow nation today. "Let us therefore brace ourselves to our duty, and so bear ourselves, that if this nation should last for a thousand years, men will still say THIS was their finest hour !"