ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook January 23, 1998 Volume 3, No. 3 Published by the Information Technology Association of America, Arlington, VA Bob Cohen, Editor bcohen@itaa.org ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook is sponsored in part by BDM International, Inc., CACI International Inc., DMR Consulting Group Inc., IBS Conversions, Inc., Softworks, Inc. and Y2Kplus, Inc. Analog Spells Y2K Safety for Nuclear Energy Industry Will the century rollover trip the nuclear energy industry? Not according to industry experts, at least not where public health and safety are concerned. Think of it as the power of old tech. The analog antidote. Nuclear power generators supply about 20 percent of the nation's electricity, but construction on a new plant has not started in the U.S. in over 20 years. With Three Mile Island looming in its background, this is a naturally cautious, conservative industry. When it comes to plant safety and control systems--the nerve endings of a nuclear reactor-- industry insiders say digital technology has barely made a dent. Nuclear power in a nutshell works like this: as neutrons in a nuclear reactor decay, they give off heat. This heat is transferred to water. The heat boils the water to make steam, which in turn drives electricity-generating turbines. Analog sensors in numerous points along the way gauge this process. Sensors measure whether systems are operating within preset safety parameters. These sensors pass signals via hard wire, through a logic and processing system, to an activation device. If a set point i s exceeded, activation devices can respond with a series of actions, from raising or lowering water temperature to shutting down the reactor entirely. Sensors are deployed in a series of logic ladders, requiring multiple error conditions to be detected b efore an action is taken. This sensible precaution helps assure that a faulty dial or gauge doesn't knock an entire plant off-line. When it comes to the particular question of core safety, dates don't make a major difference. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), federal watchdog for nuclear safety issues, appears to be reassured by the nuclear industryís analog antecedents. Ja red Wermiel, Chief, Instrumentation and Controls Branch, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation at the NRC, says that his agency has a level of assurance that plant safety instrument and control panels are not susceptible to the date dilemma. These devices , he suggests, are not computer driven, don't use data bases and don't have date driven functions. More than 90 percent of safety related systems in nuclear plants are analog, he says. That doesn't mean the nuclear power industry is being given a free pass to the Millennium party. The nuclear reactor on/off switch may not be digital, but plenty of other important plant systems may be, including security, surveillance, testing, emergenc y management and event reporting. All of which come under the NRC purview. So the agency is in the process of issuing a letter to its licensees, asking companies to confirm that they have a program in place addressing the Y2K problem and to certify that their facilities will be Y2K ready by July 1999. The letter will be published in the Federal Register on or about February 1, 1998, followed by a 60 day period for public comment. Wermiel says the letter will not be necessary if the nuclear industry can convince the NRC of its Y2K preparedness-a move he thinks is unlikely. "They would have done so already," Wermiel claims, adding that now it is time for the NRC to take the initiat ive. Last May, the General Accounting Office (GAO) issued a critical report on nuclear regulation, finding that the NRC has a "culture of tolerating problems" at power plants. While not specifically Y2K-related, the report raises questions about the agencyís ability to cope with conflict. "For some plants," it notes, "NRC has not taken aggressive enforcement action to force the licensees to fix their long-standing safety problems on a timely basis. As a result, the plantsí conditions have worsened, making s afety margins smaller." Even in cases where action was taken, the GAO found that "NRC forced the licensees to correct their problems only after the licensees voluntarily shut down plants." If and when the Y2K compliance letter is officially issued, Wermiel says companies claiming compliance and found wanting by NRC auditors will face regulatory action. None of which is to suggest that the nuclear power industry is necessarily asleep at the switch when it comes to the Year 2000. On the contrary, the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) and Nuclear Utilities Software Management Group (NUSMG) teamed up last fal l to issue a Y2K strategy document for the industry called Nuclear Utility Year 2000 Readiness. Wermiel calls it "a fairly effective programÖcovering everything a licensee needs to be concerned about." The federal regulator wants to see a Y2K plan at le ast as good as the NEI/NUSMG approach in place at every nuclear power facility. How difficult it will be to implement those plans remains to be seen. NEI Director of Operations Jim Davis compares the century rollover to the exercise nuclear power plants must run through for conversion to Daylight Savings Time. "Not a big deal," he says, adding that the twice-yearly time switch is a routine with which professionals in his industry have learned to cope. Y2K is just bigger. "If no one did anything, some plants would shut down due to support system degradation," Davis says. But he objects to what he calls "myths, confusion and misstatements" about the true state of Y2K affairs within his industry, saying that it is difficult to "sort stories from facts." Davis says that until the enterprise performs its inventory and assessment, the magnitude of the situation remains unknown. "But those that have done it say [the conversion] is a manageable problem," Davis says. The difficulty with the Year 2000, Davis allows, is getting one's arms around the total problem. Those arms may need to be very long. Rick Cowles, Y2K Program Manager for the Utilities Sector at Digital Equipment Corporation, says plant shut downs can be triggered by far more than an overheated reactor. And many of these shutdown scenarios do invol ve dates. Federal regulations, for instance, require power plants to maintain a fully operational event logging system. Such systems are the voice/data recorder equivalent of the nuclear power industry, allowing inspectors to reconstruct any mishap in plant operat ion. Cowles says trying to come up with a work around for these computer-dependent systems will be difficult. Should a major event occur, "there's a lot happening all at once," Cowles says, adding, "You don't have enough people or time. The computer is logging data down to the millisecond. Understanding an event means understanding its timeframe and sequence." If a system cannot be put in place to perform this function, federal regulations require plant shut down, Cowles says. As the Year 2000 casts new light on the digital interdependency of organizations, the nuclear power industry is no exception. Cowles points out that while utilities tend to be highly self-sufficient, federal regulations prohibit nuclear plants from opera ting during disruptions to local emergency response systems, such as 911 or fire and rescue service. Like much else in the mechanics of Y2K, as goes the phone company, so goes the power station. Cowles says that Mississippi River flooding in 1994 forced the shutdown of the Cooper Nuclear Station in Brownville, NE, not because of water in the plant but because emergency response teams were unavailable. Embedded systems may also dampen the prospects for a smooth conversion. On a web site Cowles maintains on the topic of electric utilities and the Year 2000, http://www.euy2k.com, he calls embedded logic control "the dirty little Y2K secret of all product ion facilitiesÖthat has the most significant potential to bring whole companies to their knees." Cowles recounts an example in which a test date mismatch between control console and programmable logic controller caused a boiler to trip. Under actual ope rating conditions, he notes, the mistake would have forced the plant to shut down. For NEI's Jim Davis, such scenarios may be a bit too dire. He estimates that a plant may have between 1000 and 2000 total applications and between 200 and 500 hardware devices with embedded systems. Davis says that by prioritizing, much on this mound of digital detail falls away without a significant impact on the plant. "If it's [a date] in a fax machine, who cares?" he asks. Many systems may be due for replacement and old versions of code have been superseded by newer versions. Such options "pop t o the surfaceÖand the list quickly goes down." Instead of worrying about the situation globally, Davis says that companies just need to get on with it. He calls Y2K a manageable project, not overwhelming. Davis suggests that simple economics will force nuclear power companies to get on with their Y2K conversions. But Rick Cowles, who in addition to his work at Digital consults with another energy industry group, isn't so sure. In a recent conversation, C owles said he spoke with representatives from nuclear power companies who were not aware of the NEI/NUSMG guidance document. Of the 110 nuclear plants across the country, between 10 and 15 participated in development of the NEI/NUSMG approach, he said. "Others have not got the message," according to Cowles. "The NRC must drive the issue," he says, adding, "with no hammer, they won't take it seriously. A majority of nuclear plants are so involved in cutting cost and responding to deregulation that they are not focusing their efforts on Y2K. Deregulation is driving everything." Commerce Secretary Calls Y2K Key to Economic Future Speaking today following a cabinet meeting with the President, Secretary of Commerce William Daley termed the Year 2000 software conversion one of the most serious issues facing the nation as it approaches the millennium. Daley made the comment in remark s to reporters at the White House. SEC Offers Exchanges Leeway on Decimals Up against Y2K deadlines, the Securities and Exchange Commission is easing the pressure on stock exchanges to convert from fractions to decimals. As first reported by the Bureau of National Affairs, SEC senior associate Director Howard Kramer says his ag ency has asked exchanges to undertake an orderly move to decimalization as quickly as possible, but that Y2K testing should take precedence. On a related note, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William J. McDonough called decimalization "important but discretionary" in light of more pressing Y2K matters. Speaking before the Securities Industry Association Year 2000 Conference in New York last week, McDonough said the SEC has deferred decimalization "until after the century date challenge in order to permit resources to be focused more fully on Year 2000 programs." McDonough was obviously seeing more than decimal points. "I urge eve ry nation to reassess its financial initiatives to see if there are similar opportunities to defer projects until after Year 2000 has been addressed successfully," he said, adding, "We in the public sector need to recognize the enormity of the resource re quirements of the Year 2000 efforts and do everything in our power to prevent resources from being diverted to projects of less urgency." Closer to Home Organizations Gain Certification IBMís Personal Software Products Division, Austin, TX, and Wipro Systems, Bangalore, India, recently received ITAA*2000 certification. ITAA*2000 is the industryís century date change certification program. The program examines processes and methods used by companies to perform their Year 2000 software conversions. Both firms participated in a rigorous evaluation of their approaches to date conversion, with extensive analysis in eleven discrete process areas deemed necessary to a successful Year 2000 conversion. Certification indicates that IBM Personal Software Pro ducts Division as well as Wipro Systems have the core capabilities needed to address the Year 2000 challenge. IBM developed its IBM OS/2 Warp, V4; IBM OS/2 Warp, V3; IBM PC DOS, V7; IBM OS/2 Warp Server, V4; IBM OS/2 Warp Connect, V3; IBM OS/2 LAN Server, V4; IBM Directory and Security Server for OS/2 Warp, V4 and DCE/DFS Client for OS/2 product offerings using t he certified processes and methods. Wipro Systems developed its complete Year 2000 conversion services using the certified processes and methods. Outlook to Survey Readers ITAAís Year 2000 Outlook may be calling next week with a survey on the "demand side" of the Year 2000 issue. Focused primarily on IT customers, the IndustryPulse study is one in an occasional series of Y2K-related surveys Outlook will sponsor in the mont hs to come. Reasonably brief and email based, loyal Outlook readers receiving the questionnaire are urged by the editor to take a few moments to reply. Business to Business Complete Business Solutions Inc., Farmington Hills, MI, has been awarded a Y2K conversion contract by MAG Mutual Insurance Co. Ascent Logic Corp., San Jose, CA, has entered into a strategic alliance with Hitachi Data Systems. TSR Inc., Hauppauge, NY, has announced the release of Future Date, a new Y2K testing software product. Accelr8 Technology Corporation, Denver, CO, has been awarded a Y2K conversion contract by LTV Steel. Computer Associates International, Inc., Madrid, Spain, has won a Y2K conversion contract with Seguros Bilbao, a full-service insurance company. Sponsor Advertising BDM International, Inc. Are you confident that your renovated software applications are millennium-ready? Have you also validated the associated hardware, firmware, interfaces, third party software, and non-information systems that keep your business running? If not, BDM can help you mitigate business risks across your enterprise with our BDM SMART ValidatorSM solution. SMART Validator helps you to objectively validate that each and every automated system affected by Year 2000 performs as intended. SMART Validator provides customers with detailed processes, checklists, compliance statements, and guidelines to validate a nd maintain compliance beyond Year 2000. With 37 years of large-scale project management and testing experience backing our solutions, you can count on BDM and SMART Validator to help you prove Year 2000 compliance across your organization. (800) 794-6085 e-mail: year2000@bdm.com http://www.bdm.com. CACI International Inc - Restore 2000 Tired of hearing about Y2K problems - and more interested in hearing about solutions? Join hundreds of other organizations who have turned to CACI for answers. No matter where you are in the Y2K conversion process, CACI can help. CACI's software reengin eering legacy cuts the problem down to size, and allows flexibility for mid-course adjustments, emerging tools and results-testing. Certified by ITAA as meeting the highest standards for Y2K conversions, our Y2K methodology, Restore 2000SM, helps organizations meet their conversion needs while protecting their existing technology investments. CACI offers a three-phase conversion met hodology covering every detail: assessment, planning, and remediation, testing and audit. January 1, 2000 - let CACI help you look forward to this deadline! CACI International Inc CACI, with 35 years of experience in technology and software solutions. CACI: Y2K solutions, process reengineering, software reuse, systems engineering, simulation, electronic commerce, imaging and document management, product data management systems and marketing systems. Worldwide Headquarters 1100 North Glebe Rd. Arlington, VA 22201 http://www.caci.com e-mail: npeters@hq.caci.com DMR Consulting Group Inc. DMR Consulting Group Inc.(formerly DMR TRECOM), an Amdahl company, is a global consulting organization of over 7,000 employees providing a comprehensive range of information technology services. Our Year 2000 Practice comprises a comprehensive offering of consulting, assessment, remediation, testing, and implementation services utilizing a formal methodology (APM/2000), best-in-class software tools, and six global conversion centers. We have mul ti-disciplinary experience in most mainframe, mid-range, and client-server/desktop environments. APM/2000 includes: … Program Management … Enterprise-Wide Assessment … Impact Analysis … Conversion Delivery … Testing and Implementation Year 2000 Risk Management Consulting Services include: Program Review, Stakeholder Readiness Assessment, Risk Management and Vendor Compliance Research. Contact: Stephen Frycki Managing Director, Year 2000 Services - US Phone: 201-200-3923 Fax: 201-200-9046 Email: fryckis@dmr.com Websites: http://www.dmr.com IBS Conversions, Inc. IBS Conversions, Inc., founded in 1982, is the first service organization to receive ITAA*2000 Certification for IBS/Solution 2000TM methodology, products and services. IBS is a recognized leader in automated conversion/migration software and consulting having translated millions of lines of code for companies worldwide. IBS/Solution 2000 IBS/Solution 2000TM is a full suite of Year 2000 services and products: Full project Analysis, Pilot Project and Repair, staffing and management/methodology Scan/Repair Conversion Factories for Mainframe and AS/400 environments Project Methodology Qwik-Sizer Analysis Licensing Scan/Repair Tools for AS/400 Y2K Projects License Conversion Factories/Tools to other Consulting Firms http://www.ibs2000.com SOFTWORKS, Inc. HOT DATE 2000/SIMULATE Preparing for the new millennium isn't easy, especially in the data center. Ensuring an accurate conversion could be a daunting task. That's why SOFTWORKS has created HotDate 2000/SIMULATE. HotDate 2000/SIMULATE is a comprehensive identification, testing, and simulation utility created to locate the programming changes needed to prepare for the Year 2000. Using a simulated Year 2000 environment, HotDate 2000/SIMULATE locates and tests pote ntial date problems the Year 2000 will cause to your individual programs, applications, and entire system. HotDate 2000/SIMULATE is transparent to your applications and supports all programming languages. For more information about HotDate 2000/SIMULATE, call SOFTWORKS at 800-727-4422. Http://www.softworkscc.com Y2Kplus, Inc. Y2Kplus provides a portfolio of "best of class" software products and outsourcing services that address Year 2000 issues. These offerings are available both to IT Solution Providers and IT organizations. Since no one vendor has "all of the answers", we fe el this portfolio approach, with tools from multiple vendors, makes the most sense. Y2Kplus addresses the following needs: … Renovation Preparation to enable you to prepare complete and accurate packages of software components ready for mainframe code renovation; … Code Renovation tools and services for Mainframe COBOL, Assembler, PL/1 and Natural; Mid range COBOL systems: DEC, HP, DG, NCR, Unisys, Wang, Bull & Tandem, AS/400 RPG & COBOL end to end renovation or client/server migration. … Testing tool to analyze, convert, warp test data dates and compare test results. For more information about any of the above offerings send an email to info@y2kplus.com, call Dave Ehlke at 781-863-8111 or visit our web site at www.y2kplus.com Calendar January 26-28, '98 DCI - Managing Y2K Projects: The Orlando, FL Info: 508-470-3870 Key Issues External & Internal http://www.dciexpo.com January 26-28, '98 Software Quality Engineering - Y2K Orlando, FL Info: 800-423-8378 Software Testing http://www.sqe.com January 29-30, '98 DCI - Testing For Y2K Compliance Orlando, FL Info: 508-470-3870 http://www.dciexpo.com February 2-3, '98 Financial Institutions Y2K Millennium Orlando, FL Info: 800-931-6722 Bug" Legal Liability Conference February 4, '98 ITAA Y2K Task Group Meeting Arlington, VA Info: 703-284-5312 http://www.itaa.org/year2000.htm February 4-6, '98 Software Quality Engineering - Y2K New Orleans, LA Info: 800-423-8378 Software Testing http://www.sqe.com February 9-10, '98 DCI - Testing For Y2K Compliance Phoenix, AZ Info: 508-470-3870 http://www.dciexpo.com February 10-12, '98 AFCEA's 3rd Annual Virtual Gov't College Park, MD http://www.afcea.org Conference & Expo February 11-13, '98 DCI - Y2K Issues and Answers Phoenix, AZ Info: 508-470-3870 Conference http://www.dciexpo.com February 17, '98 Washington DC Y2K Group Meeting Washington, DC http://www.bfwa.com/bwebster/y2k February 18-20, '98 Software Quality Engineering - Y2K Austin, TX Info: 800-423-8378 Software Testing http://www.sqe.com February 23-24, '98 The International Conference/Expo New York, NY Info: 212-734-4412 On Year 2000 Computing March 4, '98 ITAA Y2K Task Group Meeting Arlington, VA Info: 703-284-5312 http://www.itaa.org/year2000.htm March 9-11, '98 DCI - Managing Y2K Projects: The Washington, DC Info: 508-470-3870 Key Issues External & Internal http://www.dciexpo.com March 10-12, '98 DCI - Testing For Y2K Compliance Washington, DC Info: 508-470-3870 http://www.dciexpo.com March 17, '98 Washington DC Y2K Group Meeting Washington, DC http://www.bfwa.com/bwebster/y2k March 18-20, '98 SPG Year 2000 Conference & Expo New York, NY Info: 508-652-1010 http://www.spgnet.com March 23-24, '98 IBC's Y2K Legal Compliance Conference New York, NY Info: 508-481-6400 http://www.ibcusa.com/conf/2000legal April 1, '98 ITAA Y2K Task Group Meeting Arlington, VA Info: 703-284-5312 http://www.itaa.org/year2000.htm April 6-9, '98 Year 2000 National Symposium Atlanta, GA Info: 508-393-3266 BrainStorm Group, Inc. lindaodonnell@compuserve.com April 20-22, '98 SPG Year 2000 Conference & Expo Orlando, FL Info: 508-652-1010 http://www.spgnet.com April 21, '98 Washington DC Y2K Group Meeting Washington, DC http://www.bfwa.com/bwebster/y2k April 29-30, '98 Y2K Info Net Technology Conference Toronto, Info: 905-454-8577 Canada May 6, '98 ITAA Y2K Task Group Meeting Arlington, VA Info: 703-284-5312 http://www.itaa.org/year2000.htm May 18-20, '98 IBM Y2K Technical Conference Las Vegas, NE Info: 800-426-8322 http://www.training.ibm.com/ibmedu/conf/yr2000/ May 18-20, '98 IQPC's Year 2000 Industrial & Houston, TX Info: 617-482-3258 Process Control Systems Conference June 3, '98 ITAA Y2K Task Group Meeting Arlington, VA Info: 703-284-5312 http://www.itaa.org/year2000.htm June 22-25, '98 Year 2000 National Symposium Chicago, IL Info: 508-393-3266 BrainStorm Group, Inc. lindaodonnell@compuserve.com June 29-July 1, '98 SPG Year 2000 Conference & Expo Chicago, IL Info: 508-652-1010 http://www.spgnet.com July 1, '98 ITAA Y2K Task Group Meeting Arlington, VA Info: 703-284-5312 http://www.itaa.org/year2000.htm August 5, '98 ITAA Y2K Task Group Meeting Arlington, VA Info: 703-284-5312 http://www.itaa.org/year2000.htm August 10-13, '98 Year 2000 National Symposium San Francisco, CA Info: 508-393-3266 BrainStorm Group, Inc. lindaodonnell@compuserve.com September 2, '98 ITAA Y2K Task Group Meeting Arlington, VA Info: 703-284-5312 http://www.itaa.org/year2000.htm September 23-25, '98 SPG Year 2000 Conference & Expo San Francisco, CA Info: 508-652-1010 http://www.spgnet.com October 7, '98 ITAA Y2K Task Group Meeting Arlington, VA Info: 703-284-5312 http://www.itaa.org/year2000.htm November 4, '98 ITAA Y2K Task Group Meeting Arlington, VA Info: 703-284-5312 http://www.itaa.org/year2000.htm November 9-11, '98 SPG Year 2000 Conference & Expo Boston, MA Info: 508-652-1010 http://www.spgnet.com December 2, '98 ITAA Y2K Task Group Meeting Arlington, VA Info: 703-284-5312 http://www.itaa.org/year2000.htm ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook is published every Friday to help all organizations deal more effectively with the Year 2000 software conversion. If you would like to receive this free publication, please sign up on the web at https://www.itaa.org/transact/2kout looksub.htm. Copyright ITAA 1998. All rights reserved. The Information Technology Association of America, 1616 N. Fort Myer Drive, Suite 1300, Arlington, VA 22209. Internet: http:\\www.itaa.org